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Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:59Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-01-20 12:49
 - Time at C2: 2024-01-20 09:24
 - Radial speed: 978.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: S22E18
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 699.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-01-22 16:59 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.58 hours)
Lead Time: 44.85 hour(s)
Difference: -0.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-01-20T19:10Z
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